Over the past 12 months, I have been testing training programs and have made an interesting observation: variance in pace predictions. It should not really be that shocking as each platform likely utilzies it’s own proprietary formulas. Having followed fitness channels across platforms like X and YouTube, the common theme continues to the varriance betwween the platforms. However, after logging all runs via my Garmin Forerunner 965 for a 12-month timespan the varriance is not a wide as expected.
Strava’s Predictions
When looking at the data and I focused on the half-marathon segment as my favored run distance. Garmin assessed me at 1:48:52. Runna at 1:50:05. Strava at 1:49:29. This correlates to an average half-marathon assessment of 1:49:28. Interestingly, this average is one-second off from the Strava estimate and only differs by approximately 40 seconds when compared to Garmin and Runna estimates. Even though interesting, this data is still only an assessment and needs to have real-world race effort applied to assess accuracy.
Please feel free to reference the additional Garmin and Runna data supplied below.
Garmin’s Predicitions
Runna’s Predictions